Market News: Maritime Freight 2026 — Structural Overcapacity, Red Sea Detour and Conflict Surcharges

Maritime freight 2026: structural overcapacity and persistent geopolitical tensions

The container shipping sector enters 2026 in what experts call a "double pressure" phase: structural overcapacity from massive post-Covid containership orders on one side, and global demand curbed by protectionist customs policies and reshaped trade flows on the other.

The Red Sea factor, still decisive

The Cape of Good Hope detour around the Red Sea, imposed since late 2023 by Houthi attacks, continues to structure Asia-Europe trade routes in 2026. While the threat has partially eased, major carriers — including CMA CGM for its FAL1/FAL3/MEX services — maintain the detour citing a "complex international context". Suez traffic remains 50 to 70% below pre-crisis levels.

This systematic detour extends transit times by 10 to 14 additional days at sea compared to pre-crisis schedules for cargo shipped from the Orient to Europe — a factor every importer must build into procurement planning.

Conflict surcharges, a recurring extra cost

During Middle East tension escalations in March 2026, major carriers introduced Emergency Conflict Surcharges. Danish carrier Maersk applied surcharges reaching 1,800 USD for a 20-foot container and 3,000 USD for a 40-foot container on cargo bound for certain countries. French carrier CMA CGM introduced an ECS of 2,000 to 4,000 USD depending on container type on cargo to or from several Gulf and Red Sea zone countries.

For shipments to Africa specifically, these surcharges directly impacted the final cost of imported goods, with a risk of inflation passing through to African economies — a phenomenon already observed during previous Israeli-Palestinian conflict escalations in late 2023.

Weekly volatility on Asia-Europe routes

Drewry's World Container Index saw marked fluctuations throughout the first half of 2026. On the Shanghai-Rotterdam link, rates registered successive weekly increases of 3 to 5%, occasionally exceeding 2,550 USD/FEU. The Shanghai-Genoa link saw an even sharper increase, 12% in a single week during tension peaks. Carriers now impose emergency fuel surcharges of around 150 USD/TEU, revisable every two weeks — an unprecedented level of volatility seriously complicating budget predictability for importers.

Outlook for the rest of the year and beyond

• Overcapacity should weigh durably on rates barring exceptional events — the integration of several million additional TEU in 2026 maintains downward pressure under normal conditions, but this can reverse sharply in case of a new crisis.
• Maritime transport's integration into the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) now including methane and nitrous oxide structurally raises costs to and from Europe in 2026.
• Geographic reshaping of flows — China increased its exports to Europe, Africa and other emerging markets by 6% to compensate for the slowdown to the US, changing capacity availability on certain routes.
• A possible Suez route reopening remains the market's biggest unknown — if it materialises and stabilises, it could normalise freight rates but also render a significant number of vessels currently deployed on detour routes redundant.